New gas discoveries in the US could supply 118 years of US gas demand without becoming dependent on the Middle East or Russia
In July 2008 a natural gas industry study reported that thanks to new discoveries of natural gas in the United States, the estimated U.S. gas reserves had increased to 118 years of supply. View the actual Navigant Study at www.cleanskies.org. In light of the recent boom in new domestic gas discoveries, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has predicted that natural gas imports into the United States will nearly disappear in the next several decades.
In considering Oregon's future gas supplies, it is important to recognize that even the Northwest Gas Association, which represents the Northwest's gas monopolies and pipeline companies, projects that gas demand in the Northwest is only likely to increase 1% per year between 2008 and 2018.
Rockies gas production is significantly increasing
One of the places where natural gas production is growing the fastest is the U.S. Rockies; which, along with western Canada, is Oregon's largest source of gas. Gas production in the Rockies increased by over 1 billion cubic feet/day (bcf/day) in just 2008 and the production increases alone exceeded Oregon's entire yearly gas demand of 0.6 bcf/day. Gas producers predict increases in Rockies gas production of over 30% over the next ten years and the boom in supply has meant that Rockies gas prices are now some of the lowest in the United States.
Multiple new Rockies to Oregon pipelines proposed
In order to take advantage of growing gas supplies from the Rockies, two major new gas pipelines have been proposed from Wyoming to Oregon.
- Ruby Pipeline: The Ruby Pipeline is proposed by El Paso Gas and Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) and would send Rockies gas from Opal, Wyoming, to Main, Oregon. The pipeline would carry up to 1.5 bcf/day of gas, which is more that twice Oregon's average daily use of 0.6 bcf/day. The pipeline project has shipper commitments, has received a key regulatory approval from the California Public Utility Commission, and is expected to be completed by March 2011.
- Sunstone Pipeline: The Sunstone pipeline, proposed by major gas industry players TransCanada, Williams Pipeline, and Sempra, would extend from Opal, Wyoming to Stanfield in Northeast Oregon. It could carry 1.2 bcf/day to Oregon, which is twice Oregon's current total gas demand. The projected completion date for the project was 2011, but the project has been temporarily delayed.
While most conservation groups believe that future energy needs can be most effectively met through conservation, increased efficiency, and renewables, significant new gas supplies are almost certainly coming to Oregon from the U.S. Rockies at levels that significantly exceed both Oregon's actual demand and potential LNG imports. When compared with the impacts of LNG on Oregon, increasing efforts to boost efficiency and develop renewables is a much better way to meet the 1% annual projected increase in gas demand over the coming decade and beyond. Energy conservation and renewables have the added bonus of creating long-term jobs in Oregon.
